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TOP TEN WAYS TO LOSE BETTING SPORTS
By Bob Wingerter - Odds Insight
Sports bettors don’t go broke because they can’t pick winners, and they don’t go broke because of vigorish… they go broke because they use bad money management.
I’ve listed below the top ten tested, guaranteed, sure-fire ways to lose. Follow one or more of these ten rules and you will positively lose betting sports. These aren’t the only ways to be a loser… there are plenty of others.
Listed below are my ten best ways to lose your bankroll:
1. Always bet more than you can afford to lose.
2. Keep changing the sizes of your bets.
3. Always bet according to your hunches.
4. Lay lots of futures bets and bet big on propositions.
5. Whenever you gamble, be tired, drink up, and chase cocktail waitresses.
6. Pay for advice from touts who claim to win at least 70% of their picks against pointspreads over long periods of time. (anyone can have a great winning percentage over a short period of time, but a long period is much different)
7. Never read books or articles by experts and never do research.
8. Always impress people with the size of your bets.
9. Consider winning or losing as a direct test of your self-worth.
10. Be superstitious. (superstition will not cure your money problems)
Using one or more of these guidelines at once, is a sure way to go broke.
THE CHANGING ASPECTS OF LINES AND ODDS
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
Betting lines are hardly ever exactly accurate. A small percentage of sports contests end up on the number as the line predicts. Oddsmakers and bookmakers say this discrepancy is not that important since the betting public is no more accurate than they are. This offsets any advantage one way or the other.
Probably the most important consideration, is betting lines are not stable, but in constant movement as information, research, etc. are projected. It is just as difficult for the oddsmaker to establish a line as it is for the handicapper. The difference is the oddsmaker is trying to create a number that will split public opinion.. as to which way to bet. The oddsmakers are guessing too, although there are a small percentage of handicappers that stand apart from the ordinary.
The NFL and NBA betting lines remain much more stable than in college sports. The oddsmaker can usually make a sharper opening line on the pro games so they can exact more equal action from the beginning. This is why it takes a large wager to move the pro line.
Winning or losing is in the betting line, not to whether one team is better or worse than the other. This means the changing aspects of winning or losing are directly related to line movement. Studying line fluctations is a very important part of showing profits.
BASKETBALL INJURIES AND MONEY MATTERS
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
Since there are fewer men involved in basketball when compared to the injury-prone football, its easier to assess values to injuries in relation to the game. Points can be added or subtracted from the pointspread with much more accuracy than football (other than if the QB or a star player might be injured), because basketball lines are posted much later and the injury information is not always up-to-the-minute. It may not be reflected in the betting line. It can be a big advantage when you acquire the info before the lines move.
CONCERNING MONEY MATTERS... With more games, scoring situations per game, fewer players and a simpler game, there are more opportunities for profit when betting basketball rather than football. It definitely gives basketball bettors a chance to make many times more money than in football. You can turn over your bankroll in basketball up to 8 times more often than football. This means making much more money. The sharp basketball handicapper can win at a higher percentage than in football. This can compound winnings much faster, especially using a predetermined percentage of bankroll per play and increasing bet size on a plateau basis. |
HANDICAPPING PHILOSOPHY
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
“The handicapper must be constantly on the alert to make changes in his handicapping methods and techniques. This process is never complete, odds making, the creation of betting lines, and public knowledge are all in constant change. The good handicapper should never be assured that he has found all the answers. It is his measurement of change and adjustment that will add to his continual success.”
“Over the years I have noticed a definite correlation between the pro team with a well organized front office and its success on the field. Athletes seem to reflect the harmony that exists in management or the discord between the relationship of labor and management. The relationship is established by a fair and sympathetic management to its players is inevitably rewarded with a peak effort at game time.”
A successful handicapper should know all he can about the ability of the players on a team, individually and overall. He should know the coaches, their philosophy, team morale and anything else about the team that might affect its play and performance."
“A good handicapper will keep meticulous and truthful records of his decisions and their outcome. He will learn his strengths and weaknesses. This will teach and motivate him to improve his work constantly.”
“A lot of luck is involved in sports handicapping. (Although you make your own luck) I would say that over 60% of all games are determined by luck or happenstance. Its how one does in the other 40% or so that separates the men from the boys.”
“A successful handicapper will find himself constantly gaining confidence in his work and its results, especially if he heeds his mistakes and makes the adjustments. Remember, one should learn a lot more from losing than winning.”
“Over the years we have noticed a definite correlation between the pro team with a well organized front office and its success on the field. Athletes seem to reflect the harmony that exists in management or the discord between the relationship of labor and management. The relationship established by a fair and sympathetic management to its players is inevitably rewarded with a peak effort at game time.”
“In the big picture the focus should be on the long term monetary benefits not picking a TV game correctly”.
THE BEST BET EVER
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
I experienced the best bet ever around 1970 for a few years… other than a fixed game. I don’t think any game was ever fixed that I played on and never asked. It wouldn’t be an accomplishment or any fun.
Living a mile north of Wrigley Field (Cub’s Park) was a big advantage. There were no computers, cellphones or 24-hour off-shore stores… only flags and the right weather report.
I would go to the southwest corner of Waveland and Sheffield in Chicago about 10:30a.m. (there were no Cub night games until 1988). There were only flags atop the centerfield scoreboard. If the flags were limp, there would be no play on the total that day… if they were standing straight up, blowing in or out over centerfield and the pitchers were right… it was the best bet I’ve ever seen then or now.
I’m not sure if the lines were from the East or Vegas, but they would use the weather information from O’Hare Field Airport. O’Hare is about 15 miles west of Cub’s Park and 16 from Lake Michigan. I had a woman at Meig’s Field Airport that gave me the weather on the lakefront, which was a lot closer to the Park. On certain days the wind would be blowing opposite at Meig’s. Just before the game I have seen the total go as low as 5 and high as 17, when the linesmakers found out. When the wind was blowing in from the northeast at 20 miles per hour or so, on a chilly April day (it happens in Chicago), it was impossible to hit a home run (especially with strong pitchers). The wind would knock down every ball that was normally a home run. It would take about 8 errors to make the game go over. Conversely, when the wind was blowing out (especially with weak pitchers) from the southwest at 20 miles per hour or so, pop flies would be home runs. I would regularly get Overs about 10½ or 11 and Unders about 6½ or 7. There were many square local bookmakers with soft numbers back then and I had a lot of outs.
In 1988 I was sitting in Bernie’s, the great Chicago Cub bar, at Clark and Waveland across the street from the Park... I was looking out the window watching the first night lights being put up in Wrigley Field (the last Park to put in night lights). I thought this was the end of an era… but NO, the end of an era came for me in the early to mid 70’s when the oddsmakers figured out the right weather report to use when making lines for Cub totals at Wrigley Field.
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