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FIVE SUPERSTARS FROM THE 2009-2010 COLLEGE
BASKETBALL SEASON
by Bob Wingerter... Odds Insight
Note: John Wall was excluded from this list because like Oklahoma's Blake Griffin last year he's clearly the premier player in college basketball. It goes without saying that he's a must-watch player as the top prospect the 2010 draft has to offer.
Evan Turner (Ohio State)
There are a lot of players who hurt their draft stock by opting to pass on the 2009 draft, but Evan Turner is not one of them. The 6'7 guard/forward has been stellar in his junior campaign; leading his Buckeyes to a 20-6 record overall with a 10-3 mark in conference play. They're in contention for a top two seed, mainly because of Turner's ability to put them on their back. If he's playing his best basketball come tournament time he could surprise everyone by leading them to the Final Four, that's how talented he really is. Right now he's starting to strongly establish himself as the second best player available in the 2010 draft behind Kentucky's John Wall.
DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky)
John Calipari has coached some of the greats during his time in college basketball and he may not have ever had a player who has improved as much as Cousins has so quickly. Although Cousins did have an immense amount of talent before Calipari got a hold of him, he's become an absolute monster since arriving at Lexington. The freshman center has surpassed Cole Aldrich on some draft boards thanks to his averages shooting up to 16 points, 10 rebounds, and nearly two blocks a night. His footwork and intensity have made major strides and moved him into top five consideration come June. Like his teammate Wall he may not have a choice but to leave considering how high his stock is getting.
Wesley Johnson (Syracuse)
Even though Wesley Johnson is coming off of what's definitely his worst four game stretch as an Orange he's still worth watching every time he's on. At 6'7 the junior forward can play both inside and out. He usually plays his best at power forward, but he's likely going to be a full-time small forward at the next level. Syracuse's dedication to the 2-3 zone defense leaves questions about how he'll be able to defend in the NBA, but he shouldn't be a liability judging by his athleticism. Johnson needs to re-locate the touch on his outside jump shot come tournament time. Right now the Orange are looking like a lock for a top three seed though with an opportunity to be picked as one of the top four overall still.
Derrick Favors (Georgia Tech)
If Evan Turner is not drafted second overall it will be because a team in need of a power forward landed the number two pick. Favors is a lot less productive than Turner, averaging 11 points, eight rebounds, and two blocks a contest. However, as a freshman his upside is through the roof and scouts and GMs have been impressed with the potential he's shown in what will be his lone season at Georgia Tech. At 6'10 Favors runs the floor and finishes like an ultra-athletic small forward. His basketball skills simply needs to catch up to his athleticism. Once that happens he'll be a scary player to deal with. Meanwhile watching him grow and develop under Paul Hewitt is extremely enjoyable.
Sherron Collins (Kansas)
When Kansas won it all back in 2008 it was due to having a balanced team with a number of different guys who could take over at any given time. Since then they've needed a leader to emerge and Collins, who was a sophomore that season, has taken over for Coach Self along with Cole Aldrich. It's Collins who Self goes to without hesitation with the game on the line and usually the senior delivers. He's head and shoulders above every point guard except for John Wall and Kalin Lucas. Expect Collins to play the best basketball of his career come tournament time, which could cement his status as a first round pick.
TOP TEN WAYS TO LOSE BETTING SPORTS
By Bob Wingerter - Odds Insight
Sports bettors don’t go broke because they can’t pick winners, and they don’t go broke because of vigorish… they go broke because they use bad money management.
I’ve listed below the top ten tested, guaranteed, sure-fire ways to lose. Follow one or more of these ten rules and you will positively lose betting sports. These aren’t the only ways to be a loser… there are plenty of others.
Listed below are my ten best ways to lose your bankroll:
1. Always bet more than you can afford to lose.
2. Keep changing the sizes of your bets.
3. Always bet according to your hunches.
4. Lay lots of futures bets and bet big on propositions.
5. Whenever you gamble, be tired, drink up, and chase cocktail waitresses.
6. Pay for advice from touts who claim to win at least 70% of their picks against pointspreads over long periods of time. (anyone can have a great winning percentage over a short period of time, but a long period is much different)
7. Never read books or articles by experts and never do research.
8. Always impress people with the size of your bets.
9. Consider winning or losing as a direct test of your self-worth.
10. Be superstitious. (superstition will not cure your money problems)
Using one or more of these guidelines at once, is a sure way to go broke.
HANDICAPPING NBA BASKETBALL
By Bob Wingerter... Odds Insight
Bob will not be offering NBA selections until the third week of the season (Monday, November 9), because the teams will be starting to show some form by then.
In Pro Basketball, winning and losing are often not the final criteria in judging a team. When one team plays better in defeat, than another does in winning, you can gain real value by seeing through the misleading results. When handicapping Pro Basketball, some fundamentals and considerations are not just the venue. Remember the worst team can beat the best team on any given day. There is more pure skill and athleticism involved in basketball, than football. Scoring requires more skill than football. In a typical NFL game, there are only about 6-8 scoring situations, compared to about 100-120 in an NBA game. In basketball there are many more possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams. This better represents team skill and is less of a determinant in a game’s final outcome.
A handicapper has to constantly research his own and other records to be able to predict more accurately, pointspread and values to any number of situations; travel situations, both teams style of play, match ups, injuries and much more. The upside is basketball has more potential for profit. In basketball there are fewer men on the rosters, making it easier to keep track of the players. The ball is round and the playing surface is smooth, making luck and happenstance less of a factor in handicapping the contest.
The rules in basketball are the simplest of all major team sports. This changes the flow of the game and the quality of the talent prevails over the luck in other sports. The length of the NBA schedule gives the bettor much more opportunity for profit.
In the NBA, there are fewer men involved in a basketball game, compared to the injury-prone football. For this reason, it is easier to assess values to injuries in relation to a game. The pointspread can be adjusted with more accuracy than football except when a quarterback or star players are out. Basketball lines are posted the same day and the injury information is not always up-to-the-minute and may not be reflected in the line. Getting the information before the lines move, can be a big advantage for the handicapper.
NBA Basketball has about 4 times as many betting opportunities as in the NFL. It's Sunday everyday during the NBA season. It is difficult to keep up with all the statistics, injuries and factors that influence every game. ODDS INSIGHT will not make predictions until the third week of the season, because the statistics have not started forming yet. There are opportunities though. Young teams tend to be better prepared earlier than older teams. Aging veterans will not keep up their training programs as much during the off-season. Rookies and second-year men will be more durable. Early in the season, games figure to be lower scoring than later in the year. With all the extra pounds on the floor, bench players will get more playing time and the games tend to slow down late. Teams with the most new starters tend to make the most mistakes. Teams with the most players returning from last year will tend to do better than the ones with a lot of new faces, especially early in the season. The teams with a lot of new starters figure to take longer to get in sync.
There have been some obvious trends in the NBA in recent years. The best way to keep a coaching job is to average 50 wins, but there are many reasons for the turnover. Compared with the number of teams in the early 1970s, the NBA has expanded greatly, making it all the more difficult to win a championship. The media scrutinizes the coaches and constantly puts them under pressure. Today, high-priced players are more likely to complain to the management about their coaches or threaten to become free agents if they don't get what they want. The bottom line is money. Teams pay a lot more for players than they do for coaches. It is easier to change coaches than players. Old owners paid very little for teams while new owners pay very big amounts. They want results much quicker.
Another trend is the proliferation of the 3-point shot. With its rise, the fast break and mid range jump shot, have become lost arts. The big men who dominated the game, back in the1970s, are almost nonexistent today. The average number of points per game has dropped dramatically, as the majority of threes still clang off the rim. The NBA originally adopted a 3-point shot before the 1979-80 season, to give the league a boost.
Handicapping Pro Basketball is very challenging because the schedules are so grueling that you can only guess at a team's motivation until the playoffs. Most pro games are decided point-wise in the final few minutes. There is no compulsion for the favorite to win big, yet it usually has the talent to do so.
Due to their style of play, some basketball teams have a tendency to hang in against a better opponent. They may be losing teams, but discipline at both ends keeps them in the game. They can be spotted by looking at their pointspread trend. There defense offers a good clue.
Control teams occasionally get blown out when unable to dictate the tempo. Don't be misled because they are disciplined. They are not inclined to lose big twice in a row. Pro Basketball teams are able to control the tempo better at home. Disciplined quintets that are able to do this are a lot less of a risk when playing over/unders.
Be leery of high point favorites that lack bench strength or killer instinct, check previous records.
HANDICAPPING COLLEGE FOOTBALL
By Bob Wingerter... Odds Insight
The first step each season is to take a painstaking look at the previous season. We focus on all the factors that contributed to a team’s success or failure. There has to be a cause for every effect. We break down the strengths of each team. We study the reasons that might explain why it had the kind of season it did. Team morale and unity, season turning points, the caliber of opposition, how it won and lost are intricately related. Was it outclassed or beaten by breaks? Special attention is paid to the team’s leadership, both coaching and the on-field variety. The basic causes for a team’s record are often buried in these areas.
In any sport, the key is defense. When you keep a team from doing what it likes to do, it isn’t going to do things as well. Beat it in the trenches and you will most likely win. Usually, the most important game is the first conference game at home. The second most important game is the conference road opener. When the conference races begin, it is a different world. Personnel differences become a much bigger factor. Playing outside the league, other teams don’t know that much about you. You might hide players; your offense and defense are not that familiar. When you get back to the league, you don’t fool anyone.
Confidence comes from the ability to play better under pressure. Championship teams have a knack for making the right move at the right time. When you are winning, little things pop up that bring victory in the close games. When you are losing, doubts develop and with them, lack of confidence and with that the loss of close games.
Sometimes a change in personnel or strategy will ignite a team. Once certain things are inserted, a team may show new life. The student of the game has to differentiate between what amounts to two separate seasons. A football team can win more easily with a good line and average backs than vice versa.
Speed and mobility are probably the most telling ingredients in deciding football games. Size and weight mean nothing if you can’t catch your opponent. Nothing makes a difference unless it is experience, which can help offset the speed advantage. Weight becomes more of a factor late in the games when the constant pounding begins to wear down the smaller team.
Most good football teams run the ball first. You must put pressure on the other team; you do it by running. The better the ground game goes, the easier it is to complete passes to open men. A solid running attack can pick up a team… it motivates the blockers.
Great individual effort will beat any defense or the most carefully planned strategy. When your QB is throwing well and receivers are catching the ball, there is no such thing as a defense against the pass.
Team unity is probably the most decisive factor in winning, and one of the most difficult to recognize in advance. Cockiness and lack of concentration are prime reasons for an upset defeat.
THE CHANGING ASPECTS OF LINES AND ODDS
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
Betting lines are hardly ever exactly accurate. A small percentage of sports contests end up on the number as the line predicts. Oddsmakers and bookmakers say this discrepancy is not that important since the betting public is no more accurate than they are. This offsets any advantage one way or the other.
Probably the most important consideration, is betting lines are not stable, but in constant movement as information, research, etc. are projected. It is just as difficult for the oddsmaker to establish a line as it is for the handicapper. The difference is the oddsmaker is trying to create a number that will split public opinion.. as to which way to bet. The oddsmakers are guessing too, although there are a small percentage of handicappers that stand apart from the ordinary.
The NFL and NBA betting lines remain much more stable than in college sports. The oddsmaker can usually make a sharper opening line on the pro games so they can exact more equal action from the beginning. This is why it takes a large wager to move the pro line.
Winning or losing is in the betting line, not to whether one team is better or worse than the other. This means the changing aspects of winning or losing are directly related to line movement. Studying line fluctations is a very important part of showing profits.
BASKETBALL INJURIES AND MONEY MATTERS
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
Since there are fewer men involved in basketball when compared to the injury-prone football, its easier to assess values to injuries in relation to the game. Points can be added or subtracted from the pointspread with much more accuracy than football (other than if the QB or a star player might be injured), because basketball lines are posted much later and the injury information is not always up-to-the-minute. It may not be reflected in the betting line. It can be a big advantage when you acquire the info before the lines move.
CONCERNING MONEY MATTERS... With more games, scoring situations per game, fewer players and a simpler game, there are more opportunities for profit when betting basketball rather than football. It definitely gives basketball bettors a chance to make many times more money than in football. You can turn over your bankroll in basketball up to 8 times more often than football. This means making much more money. The sharp basketball handicapper can win at a higher percentage than in football. This can compound winnings much faster, especially using a predetermined percentage of bankroll per play and increasing bet size on a plateau basis. |
HANDICAPPING PHILOSOPHY
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
“The handicapper must be constantly on the alert to make changes in his handicapping methods and techniques. This process is never complete, odds making, the creation of betting lines, and public knowledge are all in constant change. The good handicapper should never be assured that he has found all the answers. It is his measurement of change and adjustment that will add to his continual success.”
“Over the years I have noticed a definite correlation between the pro team with a well organized front office and its success on the field. Athletes seem to reflect the harmony that exists in management or the discord between the relationship of labor and management. The relationship is established by a fair and sympathetic management to its players is inevitably rewarded with a peak effort at game time.”
A successful handicapper should know all he can about the ability of the players on a team, individually and overall. He should know the coaches, their philosophy, team morale and anything else about the team that might affect its play and performance."
“A good handicapper will keep meticulous and truthful records of his decisions and their outcome. He will learn his strengths and weaknesses. This will teach and motivate him to improve his work constantly.”
“A lot of luck is involved in sports handicapping. (Although you make your own luck) I would say that over 60% of all games are determined by luck or happenstance. Its how one does in the other 40% or so that separates the men from the boys.”
“A successful handicapper will find himself constantly gaining confidence in his work and its results, especially if he heeds his mistakes and makes the adjustments. Remember, one should learn a lot more from losing than winning.”
“Over the years we have noticed a definite correlation between the pro team with a well organized front office and its success on the field. Athletes seem to reflect the harmony that exists in management or the discord between the relationship of labor and management. The relationship established by a fair and sympathetic management to its players is inevitably rewarded with a peak effort at game time.”
“In the big picture the focus should be on the long term monetary benefits not picking a TV game correctly”.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL HANDICAPPING
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
When comparing basketball to football, the first thing we notice is that the ball is round and its behavior is a lot easier to control. Basketball playing surfaces are different from football fields. In basketball, the floor is smooth, compared to grass and artificial surfaces of various textures. Basketball is played indoors and this makes a difference in the player's footing. There are fewer men on a basketball team and only 5 play at a time. In football, there are many more men on a team. A minimum of 30 men will be in a game and there are 22 men on the field at a time.
In basketball, there are fewer men involved in a basketball game, compared to the injury-prone football. For this reason, it is easier to assess values to injuries in relation to a game. The point spread can be adjusted with more accuracy than football except when a quarterback or star players are out. Basketball lines are posted the same day and the injury information is not always up-to-the-minute and may not be reflected in the line. Getting the information before the lines move, can be a big advantage for the handicapper.
Whether it is football or basketball, defense is still the name of the game. Coaches who stress defense are usually winners. An offense will vary from game to game, significantly in college basketball where shooting percentages fluctuate considerably. The best teams to follow unite a hard-nosed defense to a controlled offense.
In all sports, but especially basketball, the addition of one or two key players can provide a real lift. Be on the lookout for players who have this impact. We look for teams that made a great effort early and lost. When you make that big effort and win, you have momentum. When that same effort falls short, it frequently results in a tough-to-shake tail-spin. Adversity and defeat get to be habit-forming. In short, it is easier for winners to win and losers to lose. No matter how grating a loss may be because the breaks went against you, it is best to ignore it, because breaks will even out over a long period. Young teams must be watched during the transition period, while they learn to play together and blend their talents. Not until they know each other’s capabilities, is their collective personality formed. A veteran team won’t think twice about losing two in a row after a hot streak, but a young team might.
Analyze how and to whom a team loses. If it was playing out of its class, a return to its natural company often brings a contrasting result. Due to their style of play, some basketball teams have a tenacity to hang in against a classier opponent. They may be losing teams but discipline at both ends, keep them competitive. They can be spotted looking at their point spread trend. Their defensive consistency offers a clue. Evaluate whether a win was legitimate, because not knowing can throw you off. Accidental victories are part of the game.
There is a misconception that basketball teams emphasizing ball-control should be avoided when BIG favorites. These teams usually combine tough defense and overall discipline, so their average winning margin is often as great as a team that favors a wide open offense. Generally, there is value in going with favored ball-control teams, since the oddsmakers usually discount the margin by which they are favored. It can be documented that they are as consistent at beating the points, as their more prolific counterparts. Control teams occasionally get blown out when unable to dictate the tempo. Don’t be misled. Because they are disciplined, they are not inclined to lose big twice in a row.
College basketball should be viewed in two separate measurements… how a team performs AT HOME and AWAY. It is an overriding fact that only the best basketball teams win regularly on the road. The most important factors are length of trip, quality of officiating and hostility of the crowd, but some teams, which thrive on pressure, are equal to the hostile atmosphere of a foreign venue. Watch teams that have been on the road, where they may have encountered trouble. It is difficult to correct problems while traveling. The inconveniences impede smoothing out any weaknesses. The time is not adequate for a full-scale workout. Disciplined college teams are good road teams. They don’t foul a lot, don’t lose their poise and are good free-throw shooters. Watch clubs thin on bench strength while on the road. They are susceptible to foul trouble… so are ball-hawking teams, who may be in for different referee interpretations.
When a team shoots 25 percent in basketball, either it was cold or it ran up against an especially good defense. Knowing which is important, for making accurate future calculations.
THE BEST BET EVER
By Bob Wingerter... ODDS INSIGHT
I experienced the best bet ever around 1970 for a few years… other than a fixed game. I don’t think any game was ever fixed that I played on and never asked. It wouldn’t be an accomplishment or any fun.
Living a mile north of Wrigley Field (Cub’s Park) was a big advantage. There were no computers, cellphones or 24-hour off-shore stores… only flags and the right weather report.
I would go to the southwest corner of Waveland and Sheffield in Chicago about 10:30a.m. (there were no Cub night games until 1988). There were only flags atop the centerfield scoreboard. If the flags were limp, there would be no play on the total that day… if they were standing straight up, blowing in or out over centerfield and the pitchers were right… it was the best bet I’ve ever seen then or now.
I’m not sure if the lines were from the East or Vegas, but they would use the weather information from O’Hare Field Airport. O’Hare is about 15 miles west of Cub’s Park and 16 from Lake Michigan. I had a woman at Meig’s Field Airport that gave me the weather on the lakefront, which was a lot closer to the Park. On certain days the wind would be blowing opposite at Meig’s. Just before the game I have seen the total go as low as 5 and high as 17, when the linesmakers found out. When the wind was blowing in from the northeast at 20 miles per hour or so, on a chilly April day (it happens in Chicago), it was impossible to hit a home run (especially with strong pitchers). The wind would knock down every ball that was normally a home run. It would take about 8 errors to make the game go over. Conversely, when the wind was blowing out (especially with weak pitchers) from the southwest at 20 miles per hour or so, pop flies would be home runs. I would regularly get Overs about 10½ or 11 and Unders about 6½ or 7. There were many square local bookmakers with soft numbers back then and I had a lot of outs.
In 1988 I was sitting in Bernie’s, the great Chicago Cub bar, at Clark and Waveland across the street from the Park... I was looking out the window watching the first night lights being put up in Wrigley Field (the last Park to put in night lights). I thought this was the end of an era… but NO, the end of an era came for me in the early to mid 70’s when the oddsmakers figured out the right weather report to use when making lines for Cub totals at Wrigley Field.
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